Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to garner 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this year (11.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.7%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, averaging just 7.69 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 rate last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus RBs this year, yielding 5.54 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.