Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been used more as a potential target this year (46.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accrue 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Jerick McKinnon's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 78.9%.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 6.63 yards-per-target compared to a 7.51 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (77.9%) to RBs this year (77.9%).

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