Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accumulate 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this year (9.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (3.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has accrued a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Jerick McKinnon's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 78.6%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.