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Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+111/-138).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -138.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.Jerick McKinnon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (46.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.3%).THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to notch 3.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Jerick McKinnon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 79.7%.Jerick McKinnon's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 6.74 yards-per-target compared to a 7.51 rate last season.The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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