Jerick McKinnon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+439/-1006).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -989 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1006.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jerick McKinnon's 14.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 8.0.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.0% to 76.8%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (72.7%) versus RBs this year (72.7%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.