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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-137/+100).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing attack results when facing better conditions in this week's game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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