Jeremy Ruckert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jeremy Ruckert

NFL · Player Props

Jeremy Ruckert

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeremy Ruckert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Jeremy Ruckert has been less involved as a potential target this season (20.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (8.1%).

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.
With a feeble 1.4 adjusted receptions per game (21st percentile) this year, Jeremy Ruckert stands as one of the bottom pass-game TEs in the NFL.

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