Jelani Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Jelani Woods

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jelani Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup QB Nick Foles in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jelani Woods has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.