Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football last year at blocking for the run game.
Jeff Wilson has picked up 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to RBs (77th percentile).
Jeff Wilson's rushing efficiency (4.96 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (86th percentile when it comes to running backs).
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs run defense has yielded a paltry 4.46 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 23rd-best rate in football.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's group of safeties has been lousy this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to run on 36.3% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
The model projects Jeff Wilson to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game in this game (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (43.5% in games he has played).

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