Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins grades out as the 7th-best in football last year.
Jeff Wilson has picked up 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (81st percentile).
With an excellent record of 4.97 adjusted yards per carry (85th percentile), Jeff Wilson has been as one of the leading pure rushers in the league last year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Dolphins.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The leading projections forecast Jeff Wilson to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this contest (17.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (44.8% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Patriots safeties project as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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