Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Jeffery Wilson has rushed for many more yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Jeffery Wilson's running efficiency has improved this season, notching 5.14 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.77 figure last season.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (39.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.3% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 92 per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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