Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to accumulate 13.0 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Jeffery Wilson has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this year (48.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.9%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
The New York Jets defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

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