Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in run blocking.
Jeffery Wilson has grinded out 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (77th percentile).
Jeffery Wilson's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 5.34 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.77 figure last year.
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in football (148 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (29.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (46.8% in games he has played).

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