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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this year (48.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.9%).

The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Jeffery Wilson has grinded out 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (82nd percentile).

Jeffery Wilson's rushing effectiveness has improved this year, accumulating 5.40 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.77 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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