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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+105/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jeffery Wilson has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this year (49.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (27.9%).

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Jeffery Wilson has run for significantly more yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Jeffery Wilson's ground effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 5.41 yards-per-carry vs just 3.77 rate last year.

The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 34.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.

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