Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (46.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.9%).
Jeffery Wilson has run for a lot more yards per game (60.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Jeffery Wilson's ground effectiveness has improved this year, notching 5.34 yards-per-carry vs just 3.77 figure last year.
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.06 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Miami Dolphins have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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