Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+268/-451).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -422 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -451.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have run for the most TDs in the league (1.75 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a less important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (23.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.8% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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