My Account Log Out

reorder

Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (64.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.0% in games he has played).

The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.

The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 5th-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

More Jeff Wilson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™