Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +136 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (64.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.0% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in run blocking.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 5th-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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