Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+161/-228).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +169 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +161.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 46.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (57.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.8% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.