Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+183/-267).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +183.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 46.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (45.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.3% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.47 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.