Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+168/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -163 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the goal line this week (40.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (28.3% in games he has played).
Jeffery Wilson has rushed for 0.29 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (75th percentile).
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.