Jeff Wilson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-215).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Jeffery Wilson has been given 44.2% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Jeffery Wilson has rushed for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (80th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.08 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 39.1% red zone run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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