My Account Log Out

reorder

Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -213 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Jeffery Wilson has been given 44.2% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Jeffery Wilson has rushed for 0.36 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (81st percentile).

The Miami Dolphins have been faced with a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

More Jeff Wilson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™