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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

Jeff Wilson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+187/-274).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +187.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (52.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.5% in games he has played).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.50 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.

The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 38.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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