Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-109).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Jeff Wilson's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 53.8% to 85.7%.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
Jeff Wilson's 20.2% Route Participation% this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass attack usage over last year's 45.6% mark.

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