Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-136/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Jeffery Wilson has been more involved as a potential target this year (45.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (27.6%).
Jeffery Wilson has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (76%) to running backs since the start of last season (76.0%).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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