Jeff Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-123/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Jeffery Wilson has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, completing an impressive 92.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (72.4%) versus RBs since the start of last season (72.4%).