Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
With an impressive 42.3% Route Participation Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Jeff Wilson has been among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
As it relates to air yards, Jeff Wilson ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
Jeff Wilson comes in as one of the top RBs in football at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an excellent 10.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Jeff Wilson has been one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 59.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 9th percentile.
This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up a paltry 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the best in football.
This year, the stout Chiefs defense has surrendered the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a meager 4.9 yards.