Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
With a high 44.0% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Jeff Wilson rates as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
When it comes to air yards, Jeff Wilson grades out in the towering 95th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 5.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
With an impressive 10.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Jeff Wilson has been as one of the top pass-game running backs in football in space.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (93.2%) to running backs this year (93.2%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
With a feeble 55.7% Adjusted Catch Rate (7th percentile) since the start of last season, Jeff Wilson ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs.
This year, the formidable New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a feeble 6.3 YAC.