Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Jeffery Wilson has run more routes this season (45.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.6%).
Jeffery Wilson has totaled a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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