Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Jeffery Wilson has been more involved as a potential target this year (45.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (27.6%).
Jeffery Wilson has accrued a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jeffery Wilson has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jeffery Wilson has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 5.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (76%) to running backs since the start of last season (76.0%).

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