Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Jeffery Wilson has been used more as a potential target this year (41.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (25.4%).
Jeffery Wilson has put up a whopping 5.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jeffery Wilson has been among the top RBs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a stellar 11.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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