Jeff Wilson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-102/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (39.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.3% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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