Jeff Wilson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jeff Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-122/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to earn 14.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (51.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.9%).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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