Jeff Wilson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jeff Wilson

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Jeff Wilson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to garner 13.5 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (48.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.6% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.