J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most yards in the NFL (139 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
J.D. McKissic has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.09 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 21st percentile.