J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
J.D. McKissic has been among the worst RBs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 1.95 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 12th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.