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J.D. McKissic Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-131).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -131.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.The Washington Commanders have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.J.D. McKissic has been among the worst RBs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 1.95 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 12th percentile.The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
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