J.D. McKissic Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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J.D. McKissic

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-969).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -962 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -969.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-most TDs in the league (1.28 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders have used some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

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