J.D. McKissic Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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J.D. McKissic

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Commanders have been the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 48.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-most TDs in the league (1.29 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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