J.D. McKissic Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-164).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -164.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to earn 5.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
J.D. McKissic's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 96th percentile for running backs.
J.D. McKissic has been among the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 4.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.