J.D. McKissic Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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J.D. McKissic

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to garner 4.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
J.D. McKissic has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 14.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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