J.D. McKissic Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-186/+144).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to garner 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
J.D. McKissic has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 14.6% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
J.D. McKissic has been among the leading RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (73%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (73.0%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.