J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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J.D. McKissic

NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+102/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to accumulate 4.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
J.D. McKissic has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 15.1% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
J.D. McKissic has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (25.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
J.D. McKissic's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.3% to 74.5%.
J.D. McKissic's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 4.70 yards-per-target compared to a 7.05 figure last year.

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