J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to earn 5.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
J.D. McKissic has posted a monstrous 9.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
J.D. McKissic's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 96th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
J.D. McKissic's pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a mere 5.21 yards-per-target compared to a 7.05 rate last season.
J.D. McKissic's talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this season, accumulating a mere 5.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 9.53 rate last season.