J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

J.D. McKissic

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

J.D. McKissic Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects J.D. McKissic to accumulate 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
J.D. McKissic has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 14.1% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
J.D. McKissic has put up a monstrous 9.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
J.D. McKissic's pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, notching a measly 5.26 yards-per-target compared to a 7.07 rate last season.
J.D. McKissic's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 4.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.53 figure last year.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) to RBs this year.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.