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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Washington Commanders vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by our trusted projection set to call 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.

The Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 59.6 plays per game.

The Washington Commanders defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.08 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Commanders defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jaylen Warren has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (19.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (31.8%).

Jaylen Warren has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).

Jaylen Warren's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 3.55 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.73 figure last year.

Jaylen Warren's 2.63 yards-after-contact this season shows a remarkable drop-off in his running talent over last season's 3.68 figure.

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