Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Jaylen Warren has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 44.1% of snaps compared to just 28.4% last season.
Jaylen Warren's rushing efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling just 2.88 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 figure last year.

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