Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his team's ground game this season (31.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.3%).
When it comes to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Steelers profiles as the 10th-best in football last year.
Jaylen Warren has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).
Jaylen Warren's ground effectiveness (4.62 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (80th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
The Browns defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 3.75 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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