Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing squads have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 103 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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