Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-142/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.13 yards-per-carry.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used some form of misdirection on a lowly 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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